Eight games into the season
Eight games into the season, the Courage are scuffling. They’ve had:
- a frustrating loss to Bay
- an up-and-down draw against Portland where they arguably outplayed them
- a disappointing performance against Orlando where they didn’t create nearly enough
Overall they’ve outchanced their opponents, but the results haven’t shown up. They’ve only scored nine goals in those eight games, they’ve been outscored overall, and they only have two wins to go with three draws and three losses.
That’s where the Courage stood as of May 12th… 2025.
It’s a little eerie.
| Stats after eight games | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| xG for/game¹ | 1.46 | 1.54 |
| xG against/game | 1.39 | 1.33 |
| Goals for | 9 | 9 |
| Goals against | 10 | 11 |
| Record | 2-3-3 | 2-3-3 |
How they got there both years is different.
In 2025, the Courage had a couple of truly dire attacking performances, two games where they put up over 4 xG while only getting one goal, and two games where they were soundly outchanced. However, in the last three games they had two wins and a draw, which led to optimism.
In 2026, they’ve been much more consistent, having only one game where they’ve been reliably outchanced at 11v11. They’ve shown a better ability to create chances from open play, assisting on 7 of 9 goals (compared to four in 2025). Yet their last three games have resulted in a draw and two losses, and the fan vibes tend to frustration.
Still, the more things change, the more they stay the same; the Courage outchance their opponents – even more so in 2026! – but they underperform their xG, and the results haven’t yet come.
Let’s dig into it: what might be causing the Courage to underperform? Where might they be able to get improvement?
Getting (and preventing) good shots #
American Soccer Analysis categorizes shots into buckets based on how likely they are to be scored. A clear issue shows up when looking at what shots the Courage and their opponents are getting.
Breakdown (by percentage) of each team’s shots, by value #
| Shot type | NC | Opponents | NWSL average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Great (> 0.30 xG) | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6% |
| Good (0.15-0.30 xG) | 8.3% | 19.6% | 13% |
| Average (0.05-0.15 xG) | 27.2% | 24.7% | 30% |
| Poor (< 0.05 xG) | 58.7% | 49.5% | 53% |
Specifically, the Courage have not been regularly creating good shots, and have given up way more than they should have. Compared to a normal shot distribution, the Courage have created about a goal and a half less xG, while allowing a goal more in xG due to allowing better shots.
On the offensive side, some of this can be rectified easily.
In a prior press conference, coach Mak Lind noted that one of the things he wanted to work on was decision making - there are times towards the end of the attack where they pass when they should shoot, and shoot when they should have passed. Those times when they lay a ball backwards from inside the box to take a 23 yard potshot? Don’t do that.
On the defensive side, this has been an obvious problem from watching; intermittent defensive breakdowns lead to good chances against. I’ve written previously about the breakdowns against Bay, but it happened against Portland, Boston, and KC as well. While this did improve against Orlando, it has added up over the first eight games. Both players and coaches have noted it’s just loss of consistency and concentration, and have talked about the need to be locked in from kickoff.
Game state #
As noted, the Courage have been outchancing their opponents by expected goals, yet they’ve been outscored overall.
Not-so-fun fact: NC has five games where they’ve outchanced their opponent by 0.3 xG or more. In those five games they have two losses and three draws.
One explanation for this is game states. When you’re behind and chasing the game, two things happen:
- You’re more likely to outproduce your opponent (as you’re trying harder to score)
- You’re more likely to underperform the production you have (as your apponent is trying harder to defend)
And, due to those early defensive breakdowns, the Courage have spent a lot of time trailing.
The Courage have spent more time trailing by 2 or more goals than every team except Chicago; they’ve spent the fifth-most time trailing overall. Conversely they’ve spent the second-least amount of time ahead on the scoreboard.
That disparate ratio can to their xG underperformance. Chasing the game can also compound the problem; by playing from behind, they may press and take shots they perhaps shouldn’t. (See shot chart above.)
Health #
While the Courage have not had the longest injury report, they do have one of the most concentrated ones in a particular position: defense.
The Courage came into the year with a preferred back four of Feli Rauch, Maycee Bell, Natalie Jacobs, and Ryan Williams. Between Rauch’s recovery from a 2025 surgery, multiple injuries to Jacobs and Bell, and even a red card earned, this four has combined for less than 70 minutes together on the season. Jacobs has only appeared in two games, while Bell has missed the last two. For a team that has struggled with occasional defensive lapses, having to rely this much on their bench probably hasn’t helped.
Still, it’s worth remembering that after eight games, the centerback with the most minutes for the Courage is a 20-year old who is new to the league and was signed five days before the opener. Given that, they’re performing OK.
A return to health from Jacobs and Bell would certainly be nice, but even in the near term I would expect improvements as their bench gets more reps.
Inability to disrupt opponent possession #
The Courage of the Nahas/Thackeray era were never a heavy pressing team. They would try and dominate the ball in possession, but if they couldn’t immediately win it back they would drop and cede possession.
If you chart what ASA calls interrupting actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, etc) against the average NWSL team, they’re under average in most areas of the field. While the frequency of these actions will be decreased just due to the Courage’s amount of possession, they do read as pretty inactive.
Mak Lind has noted he wants to bring in more of a press. But so far under Lind, they are even less active, despite dropping to fifth in the league in possession.
Moving from Nahas’ system involves breaking a lot of habits. Lind has talked about the difficulty of breaking habits, and noted some frustration about the defense dropping deep instead of stepping to opponents. At a certain point though, it may just be they’ve assembled a back six that isn’t suited to pressing.
Not being able to proactively break up opponent possession means they both spend more time defending and less attacking, and also that it makes them more reliant on opponent mistakes to get possession back.
Bad finishing at the exact wrong time #
Also known as bad luck.
Let’s look right near the death in a couple of the Courage’s games.
Behold, Evelyn Ijeh in the 91st minute of the Courage’s nil-nil draw with Gotham.
And here is Payton Crawford in the 94th minute of the Courage’s 2-2 draw with Portland.
Just taking the expected goals at face value, about 36% of the time, both of these goals are scored. If that happens, the Courage are hanging out in sixth place in the standings with 13 points, and no one is complaining all that much.
About half of the time, one of the two goes in. Then, the Courage would be just above the playoff line in 8th, on 11 points, and in position to make some noise going forward.
Instead neither went in, the Courage sit in 13th, and they’re needing a get-right game against Chicago this weekend.